Why I think the analyst group DFC Intelligence are morons

In this article (also linked here), the analyst group DFC predicts that the xbox 360 is going to fall to "a fairly distant third" in terms of market share if they do not start picking up steam in Japan. Now it's no big secret that Microsoft has been courting Japan pretty hard with its next gen installment. It's also no big secret that MS has not been doing great there (in fact, they've pretty much fallen flat on their faces). But my big question is this: who gives a hoot if Japan doesn't like the xbox 360?

According to research compiled at www.vgchartz.com, the ps2 as of March 2007 had sold 117 million units worldwide. Sounds about right. Of that 117 million, 25 million were sold in japan, or about 20%. In other words, roughly 80% of their global sales came from everywhere else: the USA, Europe, etc.

Let's say that over the course of its lifespan, the Xbox 360 enjoys only half of the success of the ps2 in America and Europe, and sells nothing in Japan. That's still 47 million units sold--roughly double the sales the original xbox saw. And that's a very conservative estimate on my part; Microsoft has already sold 11 million 360s in spite of its relatively high price point (considering that the ps2 is still very much a competitor in the current market).

So if DFC are wrong and MS doesn't need to focus on Japan to keep up with their competition, then what should they focus on? Two words: The west.

Right now, in the west, MS is killing it. They've sold more consoles in North America and Europe than any of their competitors (including the Wii). Why continue throwing money away in a territory you can't win? By focusing on Europe and America, MS is targeting 80% of Sony's last gen purchasers. It seems dumb at first to write off 20% of your potential market, but I look at it this way: MS may be disadvantaged in Japan because MS is an 'outsider' there, but Sony and Nintendo are disadvantaged in the west because they're Japanese. Microsoft may suck at genres that are popular in Japan (traditional RPGs, dynasty warrior clones), but Nintendo and Sony suck at genres that are popular in the west (sandbox games, sports titles, and FPSs).

So I say, screw Japan. Make the 360 the ultimate English-speaker's console, and you've easily got the top console of your generation.