So, for all of you console monkey's out there, you probably know the arguments going into this coming console war: nintendo 'says video game technology has hit its upper limits and that all next gen consoles are going to be more of the same,' MS says 'yes, and we'll it to you first,' and Sony says 'our more of the same will be better than everyone else's more of the same!' There are fans on each side of the aisle; nintendo fans will happily tell you that the nintendo is going to completely own the next generation because the tech has capped out, and sony fans will blithely argue that the ps3 will easily outpower Skynet of Terminator fame. So who's right?
Well, first off, video game technology hasn't capped by a long shot. As nice as the next gen games look (and they really do look great), they aren't photo-realistic. Meaning, you can still tell they're computer generated. I have yet to see a tree in a video game that looks anywhere near as beautiful as a real tree. Video game people look 'plastic,' lacking the little flaws that make real people look 'real.' Even the best pixel shading cannot yet accurately mimic a lake surrounded by forest and mountains (and I live in Montana, so I know what that really looks like).
Audio is another area that has nothing but growth in the cards. Video game music is either midi based (meaning the score is coded in and the music is performed 'real time' by a synthesizer) or wave audio (meaning the music is pre-performed and recorded). It doesn't take much imagination to realize that wave audio is about as interactive as pre-rendered video. And while midi has the capability of adapting to the user, its dependant on sampled instruments (which invariably fail to accurately imitate the real thing). There are programs out there that will render an instrument, real time, via programming of the overtones etc. that are present on an instrument, resulting in a more accurate sound emulation experience (I'll find a link later, can't remember the name of the damned program). Perhaps that's where digital audio will go next. Or maybe it will continue in the trend of Dolby's Pro Logic II, which allows for a real time surround sound experience. Any way you look at it, the limit has not been reached.
'But you can only slap so many transistors on a single chip!' I hear the nintendo fanbois cry. That is true. But I like to think of skyscrapers in this situation (yeah, I said skyscrapers). Originally, skyscrapers were built out of concrete. The problem with concrete is that its brittle and heavy. As the building gets larger, the amount of stress on the base of the structure increases exponentially. Further, as the building gets larger, the amount of 'play' needed to tolerate tectonic shifts, high winds, etc also increases. The tallest concrete structure ever built is the Empire State Building. But that's far from the tallest structure ever built. How'd they outdo the ESB?
The answer is simple: when the existing tech hit its upper limit, they found new tech--steel frame skyscrapers. Steel is far more pliable than concrete, and its weight is negligible compared to that of concrete. Further, because the structural integrity of the building is based on a wire-frame like network of rebar rather than blocks of concrete, the facade of the building can be made out of far lighter materials. And in areas where seisemic activity is a serious concern, the entire building can be mounted on a sort of 'rolling base,' capable of swaying with the tremors and maintaining structural integrity.
As it is with skyscrapers, so it shall be with video games. Will we hit a limit? Oh yeah. Big time. But that doesn't mean we have to stop there--we'll just find a way around. And for those who claim that there's no place left to go, all I can say is just wait and see.
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